Bosnia and Herzegovina continue their EURO 2020 qualifying campaign against Greece on Tuesday.
The Bosnians sit third in Group J after Saturday’s 2-1 win over Armenia – Greece and Italy stand above them on goal difference alone – but remain second favourites to finish in the top two and earn participation in next summer’s tournament. After their impressive Nations League campaign, where they won three of their four games against Austria and Northern Ireland (W3 D1), the Bosnians could also qualify via the play-offs if something was to go wrong.
Greece will feel their chances of clinching second place from the grasp of the Bosnians will have improved drastically after their 2-0 victory over Liechtenstein last weekend. Getting off to a winning start, even against a team of such a lower calibre, is massive for momentum and confidence, something the Greeks will need given they don’t have too talented a squad. Some individual class, such as that of experienced Arsenal defender Sokratis, means they’re no pushovers either – he captains a back-line that has kept a clean sheet in four of their seven competitive outings since the start of 2018.
Greece aren’t the most free-flowing side around, though – in fact, before Saturday they hadn’t scored more than a single goal in a match since their 4-0 thrashing of Gibraltar back in 2017. The Greeks should, therefore, have a tough time breaking through a Bosnian back-line that has kept a clean sheet in all but two of their last eight competitive home outings. Bosnia’s scoring form is almost the opposite to that of Tuesday’s visitors – they’ve scored two goals or more in six of their last eight competitive home outings – and front man Edin Dzeko has been their ‘go to’ in that regard – he’s scored three goals over his last three in his homeland.
Bosnia comes into this game as the odds on favourites, which is understandable considering their home form in the Nations League and 2018 World Cup Qualifying campaign. Greece don’t really look to have what it takes to cause an upset, especially away from home – they’ve lost three of their last five competitive away matches (W2 L3) – but they are a well-rounded enough side that it’s hard to expect anything too outrageous from this game. On that basis, we like Bosnia to get the win, but without pushing above their recent two goals per home game average.